Division hypothetical · through Week 7
If Playoffs Started Today
Where every Orange County team would land if CIF Southern Section brackets were drawn today, division by division. CIF places playoff teams by computer rating, not by league; OCF applies the same idea to this season's results and re-runs it every week.
3 weeks before brackets (expected November 1), this projection was within one division of the actual placement 83% of the time in past seasons, and exactly right 38%. It sharpens as the season goes on.
OCF's estimate, not the official placement. CIF ranks every Southern Section team (about 500) on HSRatings, formerly CalPreps. Who gets in is decided by league finish: each league's top three earn automatic berths, and about 40 more teams section-wide get at-large spots.
- In top 3 in its league
- At-large outside the top 3 at .500 or better, in the running for an at-large spot
- Out outside the top 3 with a losing record, shown where it would land if it got in
- or D4 on the line between two divisions
Moved this week: San Clemente D2 → D1 · Corona del Mar D1 → D2 · Dana Hills D4 → D3 · Newport Harbor D3 → D4 · Brea Olinda D7 → D6 · Laguna Hills D6 → D7 · St. Margaret's D8 → D7 · Canyon D7 → D8 and 4 more
Division 1
| Team | Status | League | Rec | Rating | Change | By week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Margarita | In | Trinity · 1st | 7-0 | +87.1 | — | 102456111 |
| Mater Dei | In | Trinity · 3rd | 5-2 | +85.1 | — | 79856111 |
| San Clemente | In | Alpha · 1st | 7-0 | +60.4 | ▲ 1 | 101121221 |
| Mission Viejo or D2 | In | Alpha · 3rd | 6-1 | +57.5 | — | 81081110211 |
| Orange Lutheran | At-large | Trinity · 4th | 4-3 | +76 | — | 89811111 |
| JSerra | At-large | Trinity · 5th | 4-3 | +65.1 | — | 56211211 |
Division 2
| Team | Status | League | Rec | Rating | Change | By week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Juan Hills or D1 | In | Alpha · 2nd | 6-1 | +56.3 | — | 15362322 |
| Corona del Mar | In | Bravo · 1st | 7-0 | +53.8 | ▼ 1 | 36665112 |
| Crean Lutheran | In | Bravo · 2nd | 5-2 | +53.4 | — | 38344422 |
| Villa Park | In | Bravo · 3rd | 6-1 | +45.5 | — | 145532222 |
| Capistrano Valley | At-large | Bravo · 4th | 6-1 | +52.2 | — | 27711122 |
| Servite | Out | Trinity · 6th | 3-4 | +49.2 | — | 1414121312222 |
Division 3
| Team | Status | League | Rec | Rating | Change | By week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orange | In | Foxtrot · 1st | 7-0 | +42.1 | — | 87583533 |
| Huntington Beach | In | Delta · 1st | 7-0 | +40.2 | — | 561143433 |
| Dana Hills or D4 | In | Delta · 2nd | 6-1 | +30.8 | ▲ 1 | 31111143 |
| Tustin | At-large | Bravo · 6th | 4-3 | +38.8 | — | 124232233 |
| Edison | Out | Alpha · 4th | 2-5 | +37.1 | — | 1410699233 |
| Yorba Linda or D4 | Out | Alpha · 5th | 0-7* | +32 | ▲ 1 | ····8643 |
Division 4
| Team | Status | League | Rec | Rating | Change | By week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport Harbor or D3 | In | Epsilon · 1st | 5-2 | +30.1 | ▼ 1 | 85888334 |
| El Modena | In | Delta · 3rd | 6-1 | +24.3 | — | ·1232344 |
| La Habra or D3 | At-large | Bravo · 5th | 5-2 | +28.7 | — | 561398644 |
| Laguna Beach or D5 | At-large | Delta · 5th | 4-3* | +20.4 | — | ·4667844 |
Division 5
| Team | Status | League | Rec | Rating | Change | By week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Dorado | In | Foxtrot · 3rd | 5-2* | +17 | — | ·1113455 |
| Trabuco Hills | In | Epsilon · 2nd | 5-2 | +13 | — | 121422455 |
| Troy or D4 | At-large | Delta · 4th | 4-3 | +19.7 | — | ·9111355 |
| Los Alamitos or D4 | Out | Alpha · 6th | 0-6 | +17.5 | — | 1441187655 |
Division 6
| Team | Status | League | Rec | Rating | Change | By week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fullerton | In | Kappa · 1st | 5-2 | +7.1 | — | 41123566 |
| Cypress | In | Iota · 1st | 6-1 | +4.3 | — | 32126766 |
| Brea Olinda | In | Epsilon · 3rd | 5-2 | +2.7 | ▲ 1 | 111225676 |
| Pacifica | In | Iota · 3rd | 6-1 | +2.3 | — | 92434666 |
| El Toro | At-large | Foxtrot · 4th | 4-3 | +1.6 | — | 411244666 |
| Foothill or D7 | Out | Epsilon · 5th | 2-5 | -0.5 | — | 1414696666 |
| Segerstrom or D7 | Out | Foxtrot · 5th | 3-4 | -2 | ▲ 1 | 146256876 |
Division 7
| Team | Status | League | Rec | Rating | Change | By week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Margaret's or D8 | In | Kappa · 2nd | 5-2 | -4.4 | ▲ 1 | 118644887 |
| Laguna Hills | At-large | Iota · 4th | 5-2 | -2.1 | ▼ 1 | 613375567 |
| Western | Out | Delta · 6th | 0-7 | -2.7 | ▼ 1 | 14441110967 |
Division 8
| Team | Status | League | Rec | Rating | Change | By week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irvine or D7 | In | Foxtrot · 2nd | 5-2 | -6.2 | — | 52966688 |
| Portola or D9 | In | Kappa · 3rd | 5-2 | -8.3 | — | 9101077888 |
| Fountain Valley or D9 | In | Lambda · 1st | 4-3 | -9.8 | — | 43488988 |
| Canyon or D7 | At-large | Kappa · 4th | 3-2 | -5.8 | ▼ 1 | 23668878 |
| Aliso Niguel or D9 | Out | Epsilon · 4th | 2-4 | -8.7 | ▼ 1 | ·146109878 |
Division 9
| Team | Status | League | Rec | Rating | Change | By week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina or D8 | In | Iota · 2nd | 4-3 | -10.1 | — | 6136991099 |
| Los Amigos | In | Omicron · 1st | 6-1 | -15 | — | 683106799 |
| Sonora | In | Lambda · 2nd | 6-1 | -15.5 | — | 1169139999 |
| Tesoro or D8 | Out | Epsilon · 6th | 1-6 | -12 | ▼ 1 | 1413386889 |
| Northwood | Out | Iota · 5th | 3-4 | -13.9 | — | 141547899 |
| Esperanza | Out | Kappa · 6th | 3-4* | -16.4 | ▼ 1 | 142244689 |
| Sunny Hills or D10 | Out | Kappa · 5th | 3-4 | -17.6 | — | 1426691099 |
Division 10
| Team | Status | League | Rec | Rating | Change | By week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ocean View | In | Sigma · 2nd | 6-1 | -20 | — | 81491010111010 |
| Loara | In | Tango · 1st | 6-1 | -23.9 | — | 6310910101010 |
| Rancho Alamitos | In | Sigma · 1st | 7-0 | -26.3 | — | ·3111111101010 |
| Westminster | In | Lambda · 3rd | 5-2 | -26.9 | — | 1411111011111010 |
| Beckman | Out | Foxtrot · 6th | 1-6 | -23.9 | — | 144999101010 |
| Costa Mesa | Out | Sigma · 4th | 3-4 | -27.3 | ▲ 1 | 1410101110101110 |
Division 11
| Team | Status | League | Rec | Rating | Change | By week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anaheim or D12 | In | Sigma · 3rd | 5-2 | -33.9 | — | 1451012121111 |
| Whittier Christian | — | Cottonwood | 3-4 | -30.7 | — | 1410789101111 |
| Capistrano Valley Christian | — | Ironwood | 3-4 | -30.8 | ▲ 1 | 212101211111211 |
| Woodbridge or D12 | Out | Lambda · 5th | 2-5 | -33.6 | ▲ 1 | 1414141112111211 |
| Kennedy or D12 | Out | Iota · 6th | 2-5 | -34.2 | ▲ 1 | 1414121012121211 |
Division 12
| Team | Status | League | Rec | Rating | Change | By week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University or D11 | In | Omicron · 2nd | 4-3 | -35.9 | — | 132121112121212 |
| Valencia or D11 | At-large | Lambda · 6th | 4-3 | -36 | ▼ 1 | 13101051091112 |
Division 13
| Team | Status | League | Rec | Rating | Change | By week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolsa Grande or D12 | In | Tango · 2nd | 6-2 | -37.7 | — | 114141214131313 |
| Calvary Chapel or D12 | At-large | Lambda · 4th | 4-3 | -39 | ▲ 1 | 24131413131413 |
Division 14
| Team | Status | League | Rec | Rating | Change | By week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Ana Valley or D13 | In | Tango · 3rd | 6-2 | -40.7 | ▼ 1 | 1012141414141314 |
| Buena Park | In | Omicron · 3rd | 1-6 | -42.1 | — | 114141414141414 |
| La Quinta | At-large | Tango · 4th | 4-3 | -48.5 | — | ·8141313141414 |
| Savanna | At-large | Tango · 5th | 4-4 | -50.5 | — | 1114121414141414 |
| Garden Grove | Out | Omicron · 4th | 1-6 | -44.4 | — | 1414141414141414 |
| Santa Ana | Out | Omicron · 5th | 1-6 | -49.4 | ▼ 1 | 1413131012121314 |
| Magnolia | Out | Tango · 7th | 2-5 | -54.6 | — | 1414141414141414 |
| Estancia | Out | Omicron · 6th | 1-6 | -55.7 | — | ·14141414141414 |
| Katella | Out | Sigma · 5th | 2-5 | -56.1 | — | 1413141414141414 |
| Godinez | Out | Tango · 6th | 2-5 | -56.8 | — | 1413141414141414 |
| Santiago | Out | Tango · 8th | 2-5 | -62.7 | — | 1410141414141414 |
| Saddleback | Out | Sigma · 6th | 0-7 | -68.7 | — | 149141414141414 |
| Century | Out | Tango · 9th | 0-7 | -87.7 | — | 146141414141414 |
How the hypothetical works, and how well it has done
- Ratings: each team's average margin against its opponents, adjusted for how strong those opponents are (the same family of rating CIF uses). Every win counts as at least 17 points, so winning matters more than running up the score. Those settings were chosen by testing hundreds of combinations against every CIF Southern Section playoff placement from 2022 to 2025.
- Divisions, CIF-style: the projected qualifiers are ranked by rating and dealt into divisions in order, Division 1 first. Each division takes the share of Orange County qualifiers it actually got in 2022–2025 (about one in eight to D1, for example). Teams outside a spot are shown next to the qualifiers rated like them. A team within 3 rating points of a team in the next division is marked "or D…".
- Who's in: each league's current top three are marked In (in 2022–2025 nearly every league had three automatic berths), teams below them at .500 or better At-large (CIF-SS handed out about 40 at-large berths a year, spread across all 14 divisions). Standings follow the standings page; before league play they lean on overall record.
- Re-run every week on that season's results to date. The trail of numbers shows each team's projected division week by week.
| Weeks before brackets | Exact | Within 1 | Within 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bracket week | 41% | 84% | 98% |
| 1 | 40% | 81% | 97% |
| 2 | 43% | 82% | 98% |
| 3 | 38% | 83% | 96% |
| 4 | 33% | 76% | 94% |
| 5 | 28% | 70% | 89% |
| 6 | 23% | 60% | 84% |
Track record: tested on the actual placements of 189 Orange County playoff teams (2022–2025), each season predicted with cutoffs learned only from the other seasons. At bracket time it named the exact division 41% of the time, was within one division 84% and within two 98%. Rating the whole Southern Section the same way and cutting the list into divisions CIF-style matched 60% of all 868 placements exactly and 94% within one division.
Seasons tested: 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Model fitted 2026-10-08.